69 replies to this topic

[Soupie]

Hey, not to get too off topic... but hasn't someone -- Veers probably -- speculated that the missing sculpts might correspond to the 28-packs? Where did that lead?
Scratch that, huh... None of the Parts the SRs are in are even in the 28-packs.



Anyhow, I'll semi-salvage this post by summarizing the remaining MUSCLE questions I'd like answered:

(1) Why are certain trees missing certain colors?
(2) Why are certain colors within trees scarcer than other colors?
(3) Why are certain trees missing certain sculpts?
(4) Is there any connection between the above questions and the 4-packs, 10-packs, and 28-packs.

Edited by Soupie, 24 July 2007 - 09:01 AM.

[Soupie]

(1) Why are certain trees missing certain colors?
(2) Why are certain colors within trees scarcer than other colors?

I believe this is a factory issue. I know multiple locations were producing MUSCLE’s, so I assume they were responsible for different colors, “trees”, and/or packs.

I like that idea. Hopefully a full breakdown of the MUSCLE Parts will reveal a 2-3 pronged pattern that might point to 2-3 production plants! That would be awesome. (Of course, it would still be speculation.)

Also, last thing on this until later this evening: I have three 4-packs, two of which are Flesh/Red/Purple/Blue halvers and one that is Blue/Light Blue/Green, and Orange. I'll have a full breakdown tonite, but there is one big difference that jumps out right away. (And I know this isn't knew info, but thought it'd be good for this thread.)

The all color 4-pack is missing the Poster Mail-Away offer, while the others are not. I think this little factoid definitely supports at least a 2-wave theory. (All other info on the packs is the same, including the serial numbers 74299 02637 -- of which the last four digits -- 2637 -- appear on the bottom right front of all three packs.

[Universal Ruler Supreme]

Good last point Soups. I was going to mention the poster offer as well. We know that there had to be at least 3 waves of figures produced, and at most 4.

Very first run of flesh figures did not have the poster offer.
Second/third run of figures which would have started flesh until they produced R/B/P had the poster offer.
Fourth run of figures were all color which I believe none of these had the poster offer.

Remember that the poster was made in both Flesh, and mixed colors. I believe as Veers does that all colors were decided upon and were probably being made at the same time. However in order to move out their old stock of flesh figures, they mixed in r/b/p figs. So they produced these colors the most until they were ready to start shipping all colors. Why? Because they already had a new commercial marketing the colored figures. They weren't about to ship just their flesh figure overstock out with nothing but flesh! They had already promised newer colors! So what better way to get rid of old stock and keep the kiddies wanting more! Mix em up! Kids wouldn't have wanted to buy a flesh pack if they went to get colored figures. Then after they were sure they had the interest of the children, they finally started shipping their other colors! The theory of double dipping is moot if they started producing r/b/p figures in larger groups in the first place! Also these three are colors that are extremely appealing to kids. ...............I've run on and forgot if I got to the point I was interested in getting to. .


Anyways! On to the 28 packs. They were made in flesh, mix, and all colors! Each 28 pack consist of figures from the same trees, there being 3 or more in each. They produced 28 packs in flesh/red/blue/purple with no other colors. They then made 28 packs in color, but of the many 28 packs I've come across many are either made in the same exact group of colors, and very rarely pop up in other color combinations. The most rare of the colored 28 pack figures were more than likely changed up towards the end of the line. There were also a number of 28 pack figures that could only be attained by buying a 28 pack. However I am still unsure as to whether there are any figures that are not 28 pack exclusive. I believe I've seen a few cases, but I cannot pull it from memory. In any case, that will be some of the first info I will be able to determine.

[Universal Ruler Supreme]

True. That's what bugs me about mattel. They always have made wonderful toy lines, but they are sloppy about continuing them and ending them. I would have LOVED it if they had made the rest of the Keshies into muscles.

[Soupie]

I think that’s why the prototype poster has so many figures on it. I think that poster supports the idea that MORE figures were supposed to be made, but colors were introduced instead.

And I think the "more figures" would have been Parts beyond Part 21 -- as opposed to the sculpts that were mysteriously left out of MUSCLE Parts 1-21 (but that's just my belief).

[Universal Ruler Supreme]

Well we have to keep in mind that many of the super rares or non made sculpts may have been in the same boat as #161 Atlantis, and been made on it's own tree. Aside from whole trees that might not have been used.

[Soupie]

Well we have to keep in mind that many of the super rares or non made sculpts may have been in the same boat as #161 Atlantis, and been made on it's own tree. Aside from whole trees that might not have been used.

Yeah, but keep in mind that Naochin's archive actually shows #161 sitting apart in it's own tree, whereas the SRs do not, as far as I know...

[Universal Ruler Supreme]

That's because 161 also was not initially released with part 3. Use google or something to translate that page and you will be able to make that out, if memory serves me correctly. That's the only reason he would have separated it. They don't exactly know about the tree info that we do so it wouldn't have had to do with whether or not it was made on it's own tree.

[jkaris]

So you know, every halfer pack I have ever come across, whether it be 4 packs, the case of 10 packs I had or 28 packs, have always been half flesh and then a mix of red/blue/purple for the other half. I don't know anyone who has any half and half packs with more than flesh and the 3 colors in them.

Veers, don't forget that catalog pics are usually pre-release, and if there are 10 packs in the catalog with more than f/r/b/p then they may just be for the catalog pics only.

I have always understood wave 1 to be flesh, wave 2 to be f/r/b/p and wave 3 to be all colors.

[arforbes]

So you know, every halfer pack I have ever come across, whether it be 4 packs, the case of 10 packs I had or 28 packs, have always been half flesh and then a mix of red/blue/purple for the other half. I don't know anyone who has any half and half packs with more than flesh and the 3 colors in them.

Veers, don't forget that catalog pics are usually pre-release, and if there are 10 packs in the catalog with more than f/r/b/p then they may just be for the catalog pics only.

I have always understood wave 1 to be flesh, wave 2 to be f/r/b/p and wave 3 to be all colors.

This has been my observation over all these years as well. I have never seen any packs that were mixed that did not have flesh and either Purple, Blue, or Red in them.

[jkaris]

So you know, every halfer pack I have ever come across, whether it be 4 packs, the case of 10 packs I had or 28 packs, have always been half flesh and then a mix of red/blue/purple for the other half. I don't know anyone who has any half and half packs with more than flesh and the 3 colors in them.

Veers, don't forget that catalog pics are usually pre-release, and if there are 10 packs in the catalog with more than f/r/b/p then they may just be for the catalog pics only.

I have always understood wave 1 to be flesh, wave 2 to be f/r/b/p and wave 3 to be all colors.

This has been my observation over all these years as well. I have never seen any packs that were mixed that did not have flesh and either Purple, Blue, or Red in them.

Which brings to mind an interesting theory......
If Mattel was debating adding sculpts to the line after the 1st 233, that would account for the flesh and colored super rares, since the only colored SRs are blue and red. Although, this does not account for the fact that all the colored SRs and SR figures over pt21 have all been found in Japan. But this could easily be because the factories that would have produced the test shots were all in Japan at the time.

So maybe the US SR figs were packaging errors or Mattel test shots, where the JP SRs were from the factory Bandai made them in for Mattel.

Something to ponder.

[Universal Ruler Supreme]

I tried to go to Naochin's site, but it appears to be down or something. Anyone else getting this problem?

[jkaris]

I tried to go to Naochin's site, but it appears to be down or something. Anyone else getting this problem?

His hosting service is down for maintenance.

[Soupie]

So you know, every halfer pack I have ever come across, whether it be 4 packs, the case of 10 packs I had or 28 packs, have always been half flesh and then a mix of red/blue/purple for the other half. I don't know anyone who has any half and half packs with more than flesh and the 3 colors in them.

Veers, don't forget that catalog pics are usually pre-release, and if there are 10 packs in the catalog with more than f/r/b/p then they may just be for the catalog pics only.

I have always understood wave 1 to be flesh, wave 2 to be f/r/b/p and wave 3 to be all colors.

This has been my observation over all these years as well. I have never seen any packs that were mixed that did not have flesh and either Purple, Blue, or Red in them.

So what you guys are suggesting is that Flesh was never packaged with colors others than Red, Blue, and Purple. Do you guys think Flesh figures were still shipped during the 3rd, all-color wave? (Not sure if this would tell us anything, just curious.)

Which brings to mind an interesting theory......
If Mattel was debating adding sculpts to the line after the 1st 233, that would account for the flesh and colored super rares, since the only colored SRs are blue and red. Although, this does not account for the fact that all the colored SRs and SR figures over pt21 have all been found in Japan. But this could easily be because the factories that would have produced the test shots were all in Japan at the time.

So maybe the US SR figs were packaging errors or Mattel test shots, where the JP SRs were from the factory Bandai made them in for Mattel.

Very interesting insight, Jkaris. And the timing is right too. This puts a slight twist on what Veers has theorized: Mattel was at a point where they considered going with new sculpts OR new colors (Veers always says colors, but maybe the decision was colors other than Red, Blue, and Purple). So, like Jkaris said, they had some sculpts beyond Part 21 made in Flesh and in Red, Blue and Purple. But they also must have had some protos of Part 1-21 sculpts made in the new colors... and preferred them over new sculpts in Flesh, Red, Blue, and Purple.

I can see them weighing the declining sales figures of MUSCLEs in the decision. Which would have been more costly do you suppose, getting the rights from Bandai to use new sculpts or using new colors?

[Soupie]

Having said all of that, I don’t believe Mattel would have given thought to a “second” wave of color figures. We can all emrocically agree that the first wave is all Flesh. But, based on the 1987 catalog, MUSCLE does not get the attention/space it got a year ago. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Well, I was actually going to say in my last post that not only do I believe there were three release waves, but I think there may have been three production waves. However, the current evidence paints two different stories:

(1) Look at the numbers of our three color groupings:



Overall, besides Flesh and Grape, I'd say their production numbers were pretty equal. Obviously, the MUSCLE DB info isn't perfect, but I think it gives us good, solid numbers.

Also, keep in mind that ALL the sculpts were made in Flesh, whereas not all the sculpts were made in the other colors. For instance, only 5 of the sculpts were made in Grape, obviously accounting for it's small numbers. Likewise with Magenta. I'm only at Part Nine of breaking down the MUSCLE Parts, but already Magenta is missing from 16 of the 24 Trees which make up the first 9 MUSCLE parts... which probably accounts for Magenta being last.

Which means, I think, that even though fewer sculpts were made in Magenta, all the Tree received an equal amount of dipping in Magenta... and therefore, I would guess that all the Trees received and equal dipping of all the colors, except for perhaps Flesh. (It remains to be seen if the fact that all the sculpts were made in Flesh is the reason for the high number of Flesh figure OR if the Trees were "dipped" in Flesh more times than they were in the other colors.

On the face of this info, it does therefore look like all the non-Flesh colors were produced at the same time, as opposed to a round of Red, Dark Blue, Purple, and then a second round of the new colors and a double dipping of Red, Dark Blue, and Purple.

(2) A bit of info that supports Flesh being produced first (despite the catalog pics), followed by the colors being produced is Satan Cross only being found in Flesh. Most (if not all) of us agree that Satan Cross is uncommon/common in Flesh... but rare or non-existent in color. If Flesh and the colors were produced at the same time, because of the abundance of Satan Cross sculpts, we'd have a colored Satan Cross.

Instead, Satan Cross must have been made in the 1st production wave of Flesh, and then "removed" when the 2nd production wave of colors was started.

The question is, were Flesh also produced in this second production wave? Because of their high numbers I think yes, but it seems odd that Mattel would continue producing Flesh figures. So then I think not...

(3) If all the colors were produced at the same time, why only package Red, Blue, and Purple with Flesh... and not the other colors?

[Soupie]

Also, keep in mind that ALL the sculpts were made in Flesh, whereas not all the sculpts were made in the other colors. For instance, only 5 of the sculpts were made in Grape, obviously accounting for it's small numbers. Likewise with Magenta. I'm only at Part Nine of breaking down the MUSCLE Parts, but already Magenta is missing from 16 of the 24 Trees which make up the first 9 MUSCLE parts... which probably accounts for Magenta being last.

Which means, I think, that even though fewer sculpts were made in Magenta, all the Tree received an equal amount of dipping in Magenta... and therefore, I would guess that all the Trees received and equal dipping of all the colors, except for perhaps Flesh. (It remains to be seen if the fact that all the sculpts were made in Flesh is the reason for the high number of Flesh figure OR if the Trees were "dipped" in Flesh more times than they were in the other colors.

I realized that the MDB already had the data for the number of sculpts per color. So I decided to make two graphs and compare them. Of course, keeping with almost everything else about MUSCLEs, the results are mystifying.

First we have the colors graphed by the Mass Number Available:



Is there a relationship between Mass Number Available and Numbers of Sculpts Per Color?



Apparently not! WTF?

Even though Salmon was produced in more sculpts than Light Blue, Green, and Red, there are more Light Blue, Green, and Red figures.

Edited by Soupie, 25 July 2007 - 09:32 AM.

[Universal Ruler Supreme]

I think they were told to lower the production amount of each tree as the line was dying in order to hit more trees before they stopped production.

[Soupie]

There are just sooo many variables, it's overwhelming. Don't forget there's the possibility that MUSCLEs were being produced in 1985-86 the same time some Kinnikuman Kinkeshi Parts were being produced... so all 400 figures may not have even been in existence at the time MUSCLEs were being contemplated.

According to the MUSCLE DB data, Flesh, Red, Purple, and Blue are more abundant in numbers than the other colors. And as the numbers show, the number of sculpts a color is available in a non factor. This means not all the trees were produced equally. If that were the case, there would be more Salmon figures than Light Blue, Red, and Green.

Veers' idea that all the colored figs were produced at once and the higher numbers are connected to the packaging -- 4-packs -- for me seems to jive for their clearly higher, but not-so-much-higher numbers. I feel like I could argue that if the higher numbers were due to higher production, the difference in numbers would be greater. On that note, it is possible that the numbers are skewed due to the MDB.

URS, your idea about production being slowed only works if there were three waves, right? The last wave being all the non-Red, Blue, and Purple colors. Are you suggesting these colors would match Red, Blue and Purple if their production hadn't been halted due to poor sales?

I think the biggest fact that supports the 3-wave production/release is the fact that there are 3 distinct 4-packs: (1) Flesh; (2) Flesh, Red, Blue, Purple; and (3) All Colors sans Flesh.

Again, if all the colors were available, and stock had to be moved, why not have fully mixed 4-packs -- Flesh and all the colors? A simple answer is that Flesh was combined with Red, Blue, and Purple because they were the only colors available at the time.

Anyhow, a simple "test" for color availability would be to breakdown mixed color lots on eBay and compare the percentages. I will do this over the next couple weeks. I'm not sure what a good sample size would be, maybe 50-100 lots of figures of say, 20 or more figures per lot.

We'll see if the info gathered matches the info on the MDB, that is, that Flesh, Red, Blue, and Purple are the most abundant colors, followed by the other colors.

[Universal Ruler Supreme]

Just throwing out thoughts is all.

[Soupie]

Again, if all the colors were available, and stock had to be moved, why not have fully mixed 4-packs -- Flesh and all the colors? A simple answer is that Flesh was combined with Red, Blue, and Purple because they were the only colors available at the time.

I think this is a good point, but I believe it has a simple answer. They hadn’t completely abandoned MUSCLE yet. There’s a “brand identity” with the Flesh figures, and the Color figures signify new product. You retain the kids trying to get a flesh figure (i.e., Flesh Claw) and get the kids with “all” the flesh figures to try for their favorites in Color (i.e. Blue Claw). Plus you don’t have to raise your price point.

Unless I misunderstood you, I don't think that answers my question: I'm not asking why Flesh was included with Red, Blue, and Purple. I'm asking why Flesh wasn't also mixed 50/50 with Light Blue, Green, Orange, Magenta, etc. During the 50/50 wave of 4-packs, Flesh was mixed only with Red, Purple, and Blue -- why not also mix it with the other colors if they were on hand? I think the reason Flesh was only mixed with Red, Purple, and Blue is because at the time, they were the only colored MUSCLE available.

On the other hand, if as you suggest Veers, all the colored MUSCLEs were produced at the same time, we should find 50/50 4-packs with 2 Flesh figures and, say, a Light Blue figure and an Orange figure. We don't find this.

This leads me to believe that when the 50/50 Flesh/color 4-packs were being made, the only colored MUSCLEs available were Red, Purple, and Dark Blue, therefore indicating at least 3 production waves:

(1) Flesh (with Satan Cross)
(2) Red, Dark Blue, and Purple (and possibly more Flesh sans Satan Cross)
(3) Salmon, Light Blue, Magenta, Orange, Green, and Grape