Super rare stains
#1
Posted 03 February 2013 - 02:25 PM
#2
Posted 03 February 2013 - 04:07 PM
#3
Posted 04 February 2013 - 08:14 PM
The first DM was pretty dirty and a little scuffed, I believe.
I suppose the SHA missing a head counts... but I'm wondering where the super rares with permanent marker on their feet are.
#4
Posted 04 February 2013 - 11:38 PM
I suppose the SHA missing a head counts... but I'm wondering where the super rares with permanent marker on their feet are.
You could do a statistical analysis to determine what percent of muscles remaining in collectors' awareness are damaged, have marker on their feet, etc.
It seems like it might be somewhere between 5 and 20 percent depending on how you define things and take the data.
If you have 20 super rares in existence, then what's the probability that they would be all clean? If you assume 10% are damaged, then the probability to have 20 perfect super rares is .90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90 = 12%
So a 12% chance that all 20 known super rares are in not damaged. It would be lucky, yes, but not a statistical aberration, not freakishly out of the norm.
#5
Posted 05 February 2013 - 02:30 PM
You could do a statistical analysis to determine what percent of muscles remaining in collectors' awareness are damaged, have marker on their feet, etc.
It seems like it might be somewhere between 5 and 20 percent depending on how you define things and take the data.
If you have 20 super rares in existence, then what's the probability that they would be all clean? If you assume 10% are damaged, then the probability to have 20 perfect super rares is .90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90 = 12%
So a 12% chance that all 20 known super rares are in not damaged. It would be lucky, yes, but not a statistical aberration, not freakishly out of the norm.
If we are using your math to be close to reality, then the chances of each subsequent super rare discovery being in clean condition is very low and keeps getting lower.
#6
Posted 05 February 2013 - 07:06 PM
I'd say it would be pretty rare for one to be marked up, but then again, it's a random idea, ever kid did cared for their figures differently.
#7
Posted 05 February 2013 - 11:18 PM
If we are using your math to be close to reality, then the chances of each subsequent super rare discovery being in clean condition is very low and keeps getting lower.
Actually the chances of each subsequent super-rare being clean is exactly the same as for each of the other ones.
#8
Posted 06 February 2013 - 10:36 AM
Yeah I get that, but the odds of it continuing is what changes.Actually the chances of each subsequent super-rare being clean is exactly the same as for each of the other ones.
Ericnilla, do you cherry pick though? I mean, I would figure you to be an experienced collector with an eye for detail, so it would be no surprise to me that you eliminate a lot of the possibility of finding the damaged/marked up ones. Or am I missing something?
#9
Posted 08 February 2013 - 12:17 AM
#10
Posted 08 February 2013 - 12:48 AM
Edited by Ericnilla, 08 February 2013 - 12:49 AM.