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MUSCLE Buying Guide


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#26 Soupie

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 07:28 AM

I was thinking last night about figuring out the money value of a particular MUSCLE figure relative to other MUSCLE figures. I thought, hm, well, couldn't we watch a bunch of flesh MUSCLE eBay auctions, figure out the average price per figure, say $.50, and then go from there.

But as we've already established in this thread, there are too many other factors affecting the "value" of a MUSCLE figure. You can't compare common flesh MUSCLEs with a particular rare colored MUSCLE, because there are more people collecting regular flesh MUSCLEs than there are people collecting full flesh sets.

So even though flesh MUSCLEs are more available than colored MUSCLEs, there are more people actively collecting flesh MUSCLEs at any given time. These two factors kind of off-set one another.

And this led me to think about typical MUSCLE collecting goals. Due to the nature of the MUSCLE toy line, I think there are three general types of MUSCLE collectors:

(1) Those attempting to complete a flesh set (who happen to buy colored MUSCLEs in the process)

(2) Those attempting (1) or who have completed (1) and continue by collecting certain favorite sculpts in all available colors

(3) Those attempting to collect all sculpts in all colors
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#27 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 07:51 AM

I think there could be two other types.
4. The one-color collector
5. The prospector

While I have not seen or heard of it, I know MIMP collectors collect just one color. So maybe there are one color set collectors? "I want all the Purple figures!"

The other is the prospector. I guess this could be its own thing, or a sub-part of almost all the others. I have run across collectors who win auctions, with color figures, and won't sell the figure I need because it is "rare." They just want to hold on to it. They don't collect colors, they don't collect rares – they simply don't want to give the figure up at any price. I think, they think, it will be worth a ton of money if they hold on to it. Of course, the arforbes-type falls into this type too. They just buying them to resell them.

My hope would be that our guide helps the first four groups and hinders the fifth.
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#28 Soupie

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 07:55 AM

I'm pretty certain Theorgg has said he's working on a salmon set. :)
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#29 TheOrgg

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 08:41 AM

I'm Type #4. The Pipe-Dreamer. :)

(To clear it up, I'd like a set of the 233 in salmon. I know it's probably not possible, but... I keep my Salmons apart from my main collection.)

Edited by theorgg, 18 September 2008 - 08:42 AM.

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Our glorious Milky Way is a tiny, infinitesimal speck of sand in this vast, incomprehensible universe. And somewhere in that Milky Way is our own solar system, less than one billionth of that speck of sand that is the Milky Way. And then there is our planet Earth, one hundred trillionth of that one billionth of that one speck of sand. And on this planet Earth there is DEV-0, an insignificant blemish with a lifespan too short to measure when placed in infinite time.

And you are here, with them, as so many specks of sand.

#30 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 06 October 2008 - 10:45 AM

Ok, what if it is still three categories but different labels?

I think we still see a difference in US and Canada releases, but I've really been struggling with that second tier (UK). I believe they could be UK, but assuming the Purple Claw is a Canadian figure it should actually be far less plentiful (or maybe its just easy to anecdotally keep track of).

Anyways, what about this?
Core Production (mainly US)
Redundancy Production (US, UK, & Canada)
Lone Production (mainly Canada)

I think the factories making the US figures simply churned out lots of the same figures.

Now some figures were made by certain factors, in certain colors, for a certain period of time. And fortunately (or unfortunately) these were sometimes redundant with other factories. These ended up in the US, Canada, and the UK - which means the show up in all of these places.

And lastly are the factories that were the only ones making a certain sculpt, in a certain color. These figures mainly ended up in Canada.

I know this isn't too revolutionary, but I think it gives us a more factually based language with less of a monetary tone. I don't know how we would prove the distribution of factories. But something along these lines is already, basically, proven. And the anecdotal information backs up the secondary country idea.
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#31 Starman

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 12:45 PM

Hi there, Just after an update. Is there still going to be a guide? & if so will it show what colour muscle sculpts are harder to find, apart from the obvious ones? At the moment i mainly go by Veers' muscle needs list, seeing he's been trying to collect a full set in each colour for a while. Maybe each figure could have a star rating to show how common, uncommon & rare it is to find.
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#32 TheOrgg

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 12:51 PM

The point of this is that no figures are truly common, uncommon and rare, and that to use those labels is misleading.
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Our glorious Milky Way is a tiny, infinitesimal speck of sand in this vast, incomprehensible universe. And somewhere in that Milky Way is our own solar system, less than one billionth of that speck of sand that is the Milky Way. And then there is our planet Earth, one hundred trillionth of that one billionth of that one speck of sand. And on this planet Earth there is DEV-0, an insignificant blemish with a lifespan too short to measure when placed in infinite time.

And you are here, with them, as so many specks of sand.

#33 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 12:58 PM

No, I haven't done anything with it. It has been item #267 on my To-Do list, and I'm only at about #6.
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#34 Starman

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 01:10 PM

OK no problem Veers.

The point of this is that no figures are truly common, uncommon and rare, and that to use those labels is misleading.


I'm a bit confused by your statement orgg, that no figures are truly uncommon, rare etc. Do you mean that there's an even number of coloured sculpts out there waiting to be discovered? & That because there's only a few trying to collect full sets and maybe having difficulty finding certain figures, that it is perceived that they are rare or uncommon.
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#35 TheOrgg

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 01:15 PM

That's the point of this post, yes. Simply that this was a huge manufacturing operation and that there's tons of these figures out here. We, the collectors, are probably only looking at 5% (at most) of all the figures produced. Such a small sample can't really allow anything to be called "Rare."
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Our glorious Milky Way is a tiny, infinitesimal speck of sand in this vast, incomprehensible universe. And somewhere in that Milky Way is our own solar system, less than one billionth of that speck of sand that is the Milky Way. And then there is our planet Earth, one hundred trillionth of that one billionth of that one speck of sand. And on this planet Earth there is DEV-0, an insignificant blemish with a lifespan too short to measure when placed in infinite time.

And you are here, with them, as so many specks of sand.

#36 Starman

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 01:25 PM

That's the point of this post, yes.


oops! I should have read the beginning of this topic again, sorry.

Edited by medway-trader, 06 November 2008 - 01:26 PM.

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#37 Soupie

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 02:01 PM

Aye, it's all a matter of perspective I suppose. For example, one might argue that Moon rocks aren't rare. However, since 99.9% of them happen to be located on the Moon, for all intents and purposes, they're bloody rare!

Likewise, all MUSCLE may have been produced in equal numbers. If certain percentage of them can only be obtained via Canadians, well, then, from the perspective of non-Canadians, they're rare.
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#38 Starman

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 02:21 PM

Yeah, i guess it's all about accessibility and if you have friends in Canada. Unfortunately most of us have to rely on eBay.
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#39 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 07 November 2008 - 05:33 AM

Med's post turned out to be a kick in the ass. I still have a ton to go, but at least I've started again.

I feel that Soupie's moon analogy is both true and wildly untrue.

Yes, from a production standpoint we really shouldn't call any of the figures rare. There is no tangible proof that Mattel had "chase" figures or a consciously unbalanced production plan.

What we have seen is that collectors have had difficulty finding certain figures. These figures have almost exclusively turned up in Canada. I think it is fair to say that Canada is not nearly as difficult to reach as the moon.

What leads to the high prices, is the feeling that these figures might as well be on the moon. And speaking from experience, it's a pretty valid feeling – sometimes. With patience and hard work, it is possible to secure these figures at much lower costs because, in Canada, they're just MUSCLE's.
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#40 jkaris

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Posted 07 November 2008 - 08:43 AM

I would guess that UK and Canadian colors were produced in smaller quantities mainly due to the size of their markets compared to the US M.U.S.C.L.E. market at the time.
If certain factories made only specific colors, and those factories only shipped to certain areas, then those factories that shipped for Canada and the UK would be churning out a lot less then would a US shipping factory.
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#41 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 07 November 2008 - 08:57 AM

I do not have data to back me up yet, but I am starting to shift my thoughts.

I think there are only two types of figures: (1) MUSCLE's; and (2) Canadian distribution MUSCLE's. Now there are some gray areas in between, and some room for debate, but I'm starting to feel pretty strongly about this.

Hopefully once I finish this little project, I'll have decent data I can share.
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#42 Soupie

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Posted 07 November 2008 - 09:06 AM

I would guess that UK and Canadian colors were produced in smaller quantities mainly due to the size of their markets compared to the US M.U.S.C.L.E. market at the time.

Yes, this remains to be seen. And along those lines, I've been asking: Where these Canadian and UK figures only released in Canada and the UK.

With this in mind, I think it's interesting to note an interesting fact with the series 1 Cheap Toys released by Topps. There are 10 unique sculpts in the 1st series line. However, there are three distinct plastic types and several colors that are region specific. For the sake of confusion, I'll just address the plastic types.

It goes like this:

US: Rubbery and Medium plastic.

UK: Hard and Medium plastic.

Canada: Medium plastic.

As I said, there are region specific colors as well, though that is a little more complex. In any case, Cheap Toys were released around the same time as MUSCLEs. I think this illustrates that the three regions were dealt with differently.
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#43 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 05 December 2008 - 01:16 PM

I wanted to provide a brief update.

I have sorted through my numbers and personal experience and have possibly a new rating (is that the right word?) system for figures. Overall, not too much changes from the work Soupie and URS did some time ago. I would say it has simply been given its first needed revision.

The only bad thing, is I did it all freehand – so I have nothing to share.

My next step is trying to clearly articulate my thoughts into useful documents. I also need to highlight some of the more difficult to find and desirable figures. Strangely, the large scale stuff was kind of easy but the details will be difficult.

I will say this. I believe all the currently difficult to find figures could ONLY be found in Canada.

This is my current theory. MUSCLE figures break up into three groups. For consistency's sake I will use Common, Uncommon, and Rare to describe the three types of figures (The language I am thinking about using is Redundant, Appropriate, and Lone production. Admittedly, I'm still thinking.)

The Common figures make up about 35% of the figures.
The Uncommon make up about 56% of the figures.
The Rare make up about 9% of the figures.

At first glance I thought the commons would only be Red's, Blue's, and Purple's – released first, so more were made. However there are plenty of Orange, Light Blue, etc.

I believe each factory was given a certain formula. Factory A had to make Part 1 in Red and Blue. Factory B had to make Part 1 in Purple and Green. Factory C had to make Part 1 and 2 in Green and Red.

Only Factory C screws up. They make Part 1 in Green and Red (Red becomes common because of the redundancy), but only makes Part 2 in Green.

All the colors are Uncommon, Red is the Common, and Part 2 is the Rare Green figures. Maybe it happened because of the mold dying, maybe they didn't have enough pellets – who knows? But with so many figures being made, I can see why Bandai/Mattel wasn't concerned.

I also see the 28-packs being a big factor, but I haven't put my finger on it. 75% of the #1 28-pack figures have a Rare color. And 6 out of the 28 figures in #2 have a Rare color figure. The trees and parts and packs are probably clues, but I don't have it cracked yet. Something tells me as long as the 28-pack was done right, they didn't care about the 4- and 10-packs.

Anyways, that's where I'm at – or everything I could think to post. Hopefully I have something more tangible to share soon.
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#44 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 09 December 2008 - 09:30 AM

I will say this. I believe all the currently difficult to find figures could ONLY be found in Canada.

I was PM'd a good question about this statement. Let me share why I feel this way.

After several years of looking for rare colors. I have only found them in Canadian auctions. And the two times they were in the US, it was people that had been in Canada. The guy in Texas had done toy shows in Vancouver and Portland, where he said he routinely bought and sold with Canadians. And most recently I bought a lot on eBay from Point Roberts, WA. That's just 22 miles south of Vancouver. And he said that he drives down to his PO Box so that stuff gets shipped faster to the US.

I know this is anecdotal evidence, but I just haven't had a contradictory experience. Plus every time I find a Canadian to sell me figures there tends to be at least one figure I need plus other rare colors.

Plus all those Canadian auctions I lost to Alex.

It was just too much. There simply isn't any other explanation.

The last question becomes, why? We know that they were there, why did they only show up there? This is the question that I don't think we can answer. This is a question that will only have popular and unpopular theories.
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#45 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 15 December 2008 - 10:09 AM

What do you think of the following terms?
  • Surplus
    This would be for the overly abundant figures - certain Colors and all the Flesh figures.
  • Normal
    This would be for the vast majority of Color figures.
  • Inadequate or Incomplete
    I've really struggled with the right word for these figures. With one eBay lot some of these figures could theoretically be bumped from the formerly "Rare" classification. I thought that this category should highlight the fact that these were under produced or simply sent to one location. I also felt that simply saying Rare suggested an implied extra value to all collectors. As we have all seen there is not an implicit value to these figures. Unless multiple full set collectors want the figure, it is no more valuable than a normal Color figure.

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#46 Soupie

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Posted 15 December 2008 - 10:26 AM

I'm still chewing over these terms. However, one thing you might consider -- though it would lengthen the terms -- would be to include some form of the word "produce." Without the word "produce" I think the terms might be confusing. For example:

Over-Produced

Normal

Under-Produced

Of course, the above terms only make sense in relation to each other. I think any new terms we come up with will seem awkward, but I agree that in order to avoid using the words "rare" and "uncommon" it's worth it.
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#47 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 15 December 2008 - 10:43 AM

Yeah, I struggled with that. Adding Produced/Production seemed to make the terms a bit lengthy, but they do add clarity.

I also was trying to keep usability in mind. I felt like one word descriptors had a better chance of being accepted than phrases.
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#48 Universal Ruler Supreme

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Posted 15 December 2008 - 11:57 AM

Common, Frequent, Infrequent? :rolleyes:
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#49 Universal Ruler Supreme

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Posted 15 December 2008 - 12:00 PM

Constant, Periodic, Sporadic? :rolleyes:
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#50 Soupie

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Posted 15 December 2008 - 12:00 PM

Common, Frequent, Infrequent? :lol:

Yes, but what is someone new to the discussion supposed to think when you tell them, "Hey, that figure you have is frequent." :rolleyes:

They're most likely going to be confused. You'd certainly have to clarify.
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