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Class Wars - True Rarity of Muscle Figures


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#1 OneTallPonderosa

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 11:57 PM

As many of you may know, I have a strong interest in understanding the true rarity of some harder to find MUSCLE figures. We have the Class designations, which are great and took a lot of work, but I think most people understand that the Class designations don't paint a complete picture of MUSCLE rarity.  So over the past few months I have spent way too much time attempting to understand MUSCLE rarity by compiling information from eBay auctions. So far, I have recorded 100 larger auctions and tallied each figure in each color to see if I could learn anything.

 

For each sculpt, I tallied the number of times it was seen.  Below is a tally of the number of sculpts seen a given number of times over the 100 auctions I have tracked to date. 

 

# of times seen : # of sculpt-color combos

 

0 times : 171 (106 Class A, the rest are a near even mix of B and C)

1 times:   156 (18 Class A, 67 Class B, 61 Class C)

2 times:    217 (13 Class A)

3 times:    192 (1 Class A)

4 times:   190 (1 Class A)

5 times:   124 (1 Class A)

6 times:   81

7 times:    52

8 times:    41

9 times:    26

10+ times: 35

 

What does all this mean?

 

There are 171 sculpt-color combinations I haven't seen over 100 auctions (around 4500 figures tracked). Of these, over 100 are Class A, but this also includes a lot of Class C figures. Is this sampling error, or are these Class C actually rarer than believed?  How large does the sample size need to be to get an accurate picture?

 

While the dataset isn't large enough to answer most questions I would argue that the 3 Class A figures seen 3-5 times shouldn't be Class A - and all of these are considered "common" Class A figures. These figures are 156 P (5 times), 135 M (4 times), 116 R (3 times).

 

I would also argue that any Class B seen 5 or more times should be Class C. This includes 18 figures: 65P, 66P, 70P, 77O, 83B, 101B, 110 LB, 112LB, 119S, 143B, 142S, 146O, 149R, 158LB, 160LB, 154R, 172S, and 183LB.

 

The dataset isn't large enough in my opinion to say much more yet. Maybe when its twice this size, it might provide a little more information on those harder to find figures.

 

Ideas or opinions?

 

 


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I am always looking for more Robin Mask #214, Sunshine, Announcer, Claw, and Parthenon - MUSCLE or KESHI of any type!

 

 

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#2 kayfabe1985

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Posted 17 December 2017 - 04:12 AM

I dont have any suggestions but you have always articulated well what I thought with words & figures! (Because of the my relatively new experience with MUSCLE collecting starting in 2015/2016).


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#3 OneTallPonderosa

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Posted 06 January 2018 - 11:40 PM

So I have now tracked 115 total larger auctions for just over 5000 total figures.  A few interesting updates:

 

There are now 156 figures I have still seen 0 times. This includes 104 Class A, 30 Class B, and 22 Class C.

 

Here is the list of Class C figures that have still not appeared:

 

20 G, 26 G, 27 LB, 39 LB, 51 LB, 54 G, 60 R, 68 B, 73 S, 84 S, 93 LB, 95 S, 130 R, 131 O, 153 O, 154 LB, 158 G, 159 LB, 161 G, 166 O, 185 M, 221 S

 

I feel like we are getting into the realm where these might not really be Class C. Some of these certainly should be considered harder to find than dirt common Class C. There are 58 Class C that have been seen 10+ times, and even one Class B figure, so its hard to consider any of these the same "rarity" as many of these other superbly common figures.

 

The most common figures to date:

 

180 R = 23

181 R = 22

157 R = 20

221 P = 19

145 R = 17

177 P = 16

141 B = 16

224 P = 15

223 P = 15


Edited by OneTallPonderosa, 25 January 2018 - 11:30 AM.

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Check out my want list: http://www.littlerub...howtopic=269336

 

I am always looking for more Robin Mask #214, Sunshine, Announcer, Claw, and Parthenon - MUSCLE or KESHI of any type!

 

 

LETS MAKE A DEAL! :ph34r:


#4 kayfabe1985

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Posted 07 January 2018 - 04:41 AM

Maybe a dumb question but do you mean 115 larger auctions for 2018? I am surprised about #153 appearing 0 times (it feels like I see The Claw pop up in large lots).

 

I agree on how some Class C figures should be considered harder to find than dirt common Class C. Possibly changing the "Class" maybe?

 

Thanks for the update!


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#5 OneTallPonderosa

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Posted 07 January 2018 - 09:47 AM

The 115 auctions are mostly from 2017 still. It is only 153 orange that has not been seen in a lot (among class C color versions).

For this analysis I don’t include any single figure auctions or mixed lots that are obviously not representative of the “wild” - like an all sunshine lot for example. Mostly I am just using larger mixed lots that look like someone selling off a child collection, as I assume this is more representative of the production ratios.


Edited by OneTallPonderosa, 07 January 2018 - 09:59 AM.

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Check out my want list: http://www.littlerub...howtopic=269336

 

I am always looking for more Robin Mask #214, Sunshine, Announcer, Claw, and Parthenon - MUSCLE or KESHI of any type!

 

 

LETS MAKE A DEAL! :ph34r:


#6 Bones

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Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:40 AM

From my experience there are some rather hard to find "class B". Now i don't care about re labeling them. Just that some seem very scarce. And I'd argue some orange figs are harder to get than some class A
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