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Super rare stains

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#1
Leitmotiv

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I guess you could chock it up to chance... but after seeing plenty of eBay auctions of marked up Muscles with permanent marker, paint, chewed off arms and legs, tortured bodies, etc... Where are the unclean and disfigured super rares? To my limited knowledge, every super rare appears to be in very good condition or better.
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#2
jkaris

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The first DM was pretty dirty and a little scuffed, I believe.
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#3
Leitmotiv

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The first DM was pretty dirty and a little scuffed, I believe.


I suppose the SHA missing a head counts... but I'm wondering where the super rares with permanent marker on their feet are.
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#4
mailman

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I suppose the SHA missing a head counts... but I'm wondering where the super rares with permanent marker on their feet are.


You could do a statistical analysis to determine what percent of muscles remaining in collectors' awareness are damaged, have marker on their feet, etc.
It seems like it might be somewhere between 5 and 20 percent depending on how you define things and take the data.
If you have 20 super rares in existence, then what's the probability that they would be all clean? If you assume 10% are damaged, then the probability to have 20 perfect super rares is .90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90 = 12%

So a 12% chance that all 20 known super rares are in not damaged. It would be lucky, yes, but not a statistical aberration, not freakishly out of the norm.
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#5
Leitmotiv

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You could do a statistical analysis to determine what percent of muscles remaining in collectors' awareness are damaged, have marker on their feet, etc.
It seems like it might be somewhere between 5 and 20 percent depending on how you define things and take the data.
If you have 20 super rares in existence, then what's the probability that they would be all clean? If you assume 10% are damaged, then the probability to have 20 perfect super rares is .90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90*.90 = 12%

So a 12% chance that all 20 known super rares are in not damaged. It would be lucky, yes, but not a statistical aberration, not freakishly out of the norm.


If we are using your math to be close to reality, then the chances of each subsequent super rare discovery being in clean condition is very low and keeps getting lower.
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#6
Ericnilla

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well the % of muscles i have gotten in my years of collecting that have had marks of them is pretty insignificant. I've gone through maybe 2-3 thousand muscles and id say ive had around 20-30 with marks.

I'd say it would be pretty rare for one to be marked up, but then again, it's a random idea, ever kid did cared for their figures differently.
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#7
mailman

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If we are using your math to be close to reality, then the chances of each subsequent super rare discovery being in clean condition is very low and keeps getting lower.



Actually the chances of each subsequent super-rare being clean is exactly the same as for each of the other ones. :geek:
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#8
Leitmotiv

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Actually the chances of each subsequent super-rare being clean is exactly the same as for each of the other ones. :geek:

Yeah I get that, but the odds of it continuing is what changes.

Ericnilla, do you cherry pick though? I mean, I would figure you to be an experienced collector with an eye for detail, so it would be no surprise to me that you eliminate a lot of the possibility of finding the damaged/marked up ones. Or am I missing something?
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#9
89cpe

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I told you all before super rares were made by someone in the late 90s and planted in ebay auctions to circulate and come back up to drive us all crazy ;)
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#10
Ericnilla

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I usually just stuck to lots that had decent amount of figures, at a decent price. This was over many years too, and different times i was just buying flesh and then just colored lots. maybe I just got lucky, but i never had any lots that were full of marked figures. a few lots of really dirty figs, but they cleaned up.

Edited by Ericnilla, 08 February 2013 - 12:49 AM.

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