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“How Much Are MUSCLE’s Worth?”


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#1 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 09 March 2004 - 01:40 PM

After the recent purchase of the highly affordable SHA I was thinking about MUSCLE values. While eBay auctions vary, there seems to be agreement that if you want to buy a singular MUSCLE then $0.75 is an acceptable price. And even if it’s not acceptable, it tends to be the going rate.

Being that the “Super Rares” don’t pop up too often I concentrated on our old friend Satan’s Cross. I went through our little thread and selected all of the auctions that had sold authentic SC’s (sorry Godbeast), listed the price, and the contents of the lot (i.e., 72 figures, 12 figures, etc.).

There were 32 auctions that fit these criteria. After putting the data together I found out that the average price of a SC was $8.62.

Some other interesting numbers were:
The Largest Lot of Figures was: 261
The Smallest Lot of Figures was: 1
The Cheapest SC was purchased for: $0.26
The Most Expensive SC was purchased for: $91.00

And because I’m a data dork, I’ll keep my spreadsheet going as long as the sightings are listed.
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#2 jkaris

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Posted 09 March 2004 - 06:19 PM

Kewl Deal. Keep us posted ^_^
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#3 arforbes

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Posted 10 March 2004 - 12:22 AM

Damn Veers, you're a badass! I had no idea you had been collecting the data for stuff like this. It is useful, it helps us keep track of stuff like this, especially the high priced figures. I'm glad you did it. You're the man!

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#4 BaltanII

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Posted 21 March 2004 - 04:48 PM

Just let me know when someone here would actually let a SC go for that much! :D
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#5 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 06 July 2004 - 11:37 AM

The average price of SC continues to drop. It is currently at $7.87.

Don’t waste your money kids! :D
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#6 GRANDTHEFT

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Posted 06 July 2004 - 08:38 PM

Cool topic Veers
Some of the more memorable heated discussions we have had often have evolved
around satan X

I'm surprised that he's actually going at less than $10.00(us) per figure.

but i'm sure that just the singular figure would attract a higher price than a satan X
that happen to be in a larger lot.

we'll actually i've seen that happen many a time.

so if you want one , look for a lot that he's in, not a single figure for sale.



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#7 Mr.Monster

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Posted 07 July 2004 - 02:11 AM

Veers, are you using $.75 as the average for the commons when you figure this? Just wondering because obviously SC is worth more than the commons, so you can't just divide the price of the auction by the number of figures. Also, there would still be a little bit of a skew if you bought him in a larger lot, his value would come into play less in a 200 figure lot....

Edited by Goriki, 07 July 2004 - 02:11 AM.

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#8 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 07 July 2004 - 06:11 AM

...obviously SC is worth more than the commons...

Why? I fully understand that people pay more for SC when he is by himself. But when we first started keeping track of him there was more “mystique”. Since we’ve been keeping track of him there have been 36 sightings, not to mention all the people that already owned him. I bet if we picked another figure we could probably have similar sighting numbers.

I just think we were creating an atmosphere where it was acceptable to spend a lot of money on SC for no particular reason. I just wanted to ground our guessing in some type of reality. So I’m simply getting the average price for SC. For example:

Auction 1: 20 figures (includes SC) @ $5.00 = $0.25 per figure
Auction 2: 75 figures (includes SC) @ $75.00 = $1.00 per figure
Auction 3: 15 figures (includes SC) @ $3.00 = $0.20 per figure

Average Price: $0.48

This might not be the most statistically significant way to track this, but it’s better than what existed before which was nothing.
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#9 Mr.Monster

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Posted 07 July 2004 - 06:49 AM

Why? I fully understand that people pay more for SC when he is by himself. But when we first started keeping track of him there was more “mystique”. Since we’ve been keeping track of him there have been 36 sightings, not to mention all the people that already owned him. I bet if we picked another figure we could probably have similar sighting numbers.


The reason I say he's obviously more valuable is that you'd be lucky to get $1 out of any common figure listed by itself but I also agree that SC is probably overvalued when listed by himself. I don't think he's near as remarkable as he used to be, though I still contend he's rarer, but probably just slightly. I buy into your $7-$8 value a little more.

Edited by Goriki, 07 July 2004 - 06:49 AM.

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#10 Sandy

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Posted 07 July 2004 - 11:50 AM

Auction 1: 20 figures (includes SC) @ $5.00 = $0.25 per figure
Auction 2: 75 figures (includes SC) @ $75.00 = $1.00 per figure
Auction 3: 15 figures (includes SC) @ $3.00 = $0.20 per figure

Your initial method only tells you the average cost per MUSCLE when a SC is included in a lot. Other than when the lot size is 1 (SC only), this doesn't tell you anything about the cost of a SC figure.

Here's another idea. If the average common MUSCLE is 75 cents, "n" is the number of MUSCLES in the auction and "sp" is the final selling price, use this formula to isolate how much of the final selling price the SC accounted for:

sp - 0.75(n-1)

This only works when the selling price was greater than 0.75(n-1), of course. When the selling price is less than 0.75(n-1), the SC was probably not widely identified by bidders, so the lot sold for less than it would have if advertised correctly.

Naturally this overly simplified formula isn't without its problems as well. The other items in the lot could be worth more or less than 0.75 each. You can make this formula as complicated as you want, accounting for other such "stand outs" appearing the lot and subtracting their average value from "sp" (along with 1 from "n") to adjust the individual SC cost accordingly.

Take your "Auction 2" as an example. 75 figures, $75:
$75 - 0.75(74) = $19.50

Saying the SC cost $19.50 in this auction seems to make more sense than saying it cost $1.

Just a thought.

Sandy

Edited by Sandy, 07 July 2004 - 11:55 AM.

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#11 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 07 July 2004 - 12:17 PM

Ugg!! :huh:

My goal was to help show that there was no need to spend more on SC. Why would I use a formula that helps to perpetuate it?

There’s no set cost for MUSCLE’s. The average cost of a MUSCLE varies. Some people are willing to pay more than a dollar per figure, and I believe there are some people on the board that won’t be more than 50 cents.

Until we started tracking SC we thought he was SO rare. We’ve seen him several times. Select any 4-pack figure and I’m sure you would see a somewhat similar rate of occurrence. DM, DE, SHA might warrant more money but only because they haven’t shown up dozens of times.

There’s no perfect formula. There’s no definitive answer. But at least it shows some type of general trend. If you want to pay more, then go for it. I don’t care.
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#12 arforbes

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Posted 08 July 2004 - 12:13 PM

Lately there have been a number of M.U.S.C.L.E. auctions that have sold for over $1 per figure. Some even more! Now may be the time to start selling those extras! :blink:

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#13 TheOrgg

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Posted 08 July 2004 - 07:17 PM

Remember about a year ago when MUSCLES were at a low point and everyone was freaking out because the auctions were finishing at twenty cents per figure and less?

...and at that point, it seemed like EVERYBODY on the board had no money!

Too bad, huh?
:blink:-With my rice I like to have some...

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#14 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 07 December 2004 - 01:00 PM

Well I thought I’d give a SC price update.

48 Auctions (4/22/03 – 11/29/04)
Average Price:
$8.97

However there were some people that felt this wasn’t good enough. So here are some alternate computations. These were done using only auctions that had figures only. I didn’t want posters, cans, etc. impacting the price.

41 Auctions (4/22/03 – 11/29-04)
Average Price:
$10.21

Average Price for a SC - If other figures are worth $0.50, not subtracting negative scores:
$35.83

Average Price for a SC - If other figures are worth $0.75, not subtracting negative scores:
$18.74

Average Price for a SC - If other figures are worth $0.50, minus negative scores:
$45.71

Average Price for a SC - If other figures are worth $0.75, minus negative scores:
$42.16



*Negative scores are when the $0.50 or $0.75 per figure price was greater than the actual per figure price.

Edited by General Veers, 07 December 2004 - 01:01 PM.

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#15 Universal Ruler Supreme

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Posted 08 December 2004 - 08:56 PM

I figure If you want to get a good Idea of how rare SC is with some collectors go to http://muscledb.com/ There are 19 known SC figures documented on this site, but thats just barely behind a good many of the other fleshies that have been documented. For instance there are only 20 figures documented for 158, 21 for 131, and 22 figures, each, documented of numbers 233, 198, 60, and 32. Of course this only applies to the flesh colored figures, but that's still pretty close.
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Posted 09 December 2004 - 06:49 AM

He's new. >-< He's new. >-< He's new...

Edited by General Veers, 09 December 2004 - 06:50 AM.

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#17 jkaris

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Posted 09 December 2004 - 08:42 AM

He's new. >-< He's new. >-< He's new...

Weren't we all at one time or another..... ;)
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#18 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 09 December 2004 - 08:53 AM

That’s right, that’s why I did my best to play nice. >-<
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#19 Universal Ruler Supreme

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Posted 09 December 2004 - 10:04 AM

Well I sure am new. But collecting Muscles isn't new to me, I just don't know all of the facts yet. I have been picking these guys up here and there for a good part of my life at flea markets and the such. Of course when I was younger I didn't have a real desire to collect them and when I was about 7 years old I sold the ones that I had by then to a fella at the flea market for about 6 bucks. I kick myself because now that I have been doing research on the internet about them I realize I had a SC along with a green hand and numerous others that weren't too valuable. I have already seen 3 auctions that contained a SC in them in the past 2 weeks, but he is my last priority at the moment. I am just going to continue bulking up my collection for the time being. As for my previous statement I just don't think SC is as rare as everyone believes. But I could be wrong and probably am. Oh yeah and as for the going rate for each figure, I won a lot of 188 muscles about 2 weeks ago on eBay for 38 bucks including shipping so that was roughly .20 cents apiece. I guess the holidays are a reason that the prices have been close to a buck apiece lately.?? Be patient with my ignorance. >-<

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#20 Soupie

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Posted 09 December 2004 - 02:03 PM

As for my previous statement I just don't think SC is as rare as everyone believes.

Welcome.

I encourage you to browse through these Satan Cross-focused threads. They should provide you with a good idea of past, and current, AKIA thinking about SC, allowing you to better join the "discussion."
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#21 Universal Ruler Supreme

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Posted 09 December 2004 - 02:49 PM

Thanks for the welcome soupie! I looked through the threads as you advised this one was especially interesting. >-< http://www.littlerub...wtopic=2516&hl=

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#22 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 10 May 2005 - 06:05 AM

I'm not sure if people care, but I thought I’d give another SC price update.

64 Auctions (4/22/03 – 5/5/05)
Average Price:
$9.45

Here are some alternate computations. These were done using only auctions that had figures only. I didn’t want posters, cans, etc. impacting the price.

53 Auctions (4/22/03 – 4/21/05)
Average Price:
$11.16

Average Price for a SC - If other figures are worth $0.50, not subtracting negative scores:
$34.75

Average Price for a SC - If other figures are worth $0.75, not subtracting negative scores:
$20.77

Average Price for a SC - If other figures are worth $0.50, minus negative scores:
$42.20

Average Price for a SC - If other figures are worth $0.75, minus negative scores:
$38.13



*Negative scores are when the $0.50 or $0.75 per figure price was greater than the actual per figure price.
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#23 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 26 October 2005 - 12:50 PM

As I said before, I'm not sure if people care but I thought I’d give another SC price update.

84 Auctions (4/22/03 – 10/25/05)
Average Price:
$11.70

Here are some alternate computations. These were done using only auctions that had figures only. I didn’t want posters, cans, etc. impacting the price.

71 Auctions (4/22/03 – 10/25/05)
Average Price:
$13.63

Average Price for a SC - If other figures are worth $0.50, not subtracting negative scores:
$34.20

Average Price for a SC - If other figures are worth $0.75, not subtracting negative scores:
$21.19

Average Price for a SC - If other figures are worth $0.50, minus negative scores:
$41.78

Average Price for a SC - If other figures are worth $0.75, minus negative scores:
$36.89



*Negative scores are when the $0.50 or $0.75 per figure price was greater than the actual per figure price.
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#24 Tortle

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Posted 26 October 2005 - 01:17 PM

Interesting. Have you done a yearly (or semi-yearly) analysis? I'm curious to see the trends of increase or decrease in the value of Satan Cross. Although the prices have declined since your last update, since the data is a conglomeration of all the data so far, we can't see any temporal trends.

Anyway, it's awesome that you're still keeping this up-to-date. Good job, man! :cheeks:
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#25 Guest_General Veers_*

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Posted 26 October 2005 - 01:27 PM

Thanks. :cheeks:

And it's funny that you mention that. I was thinking of trying something like that. I'll see what I can come up with. :blush:
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